FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Charles Hanover: Caution, Bitcoin May Be Entering a Downward Trend!

Last November,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of around $69,000, but its price has since fallen below $40,000, a 30% drop from its peak.

Despite the relatively low price at the moment, several major events occurred in 2022, such as the war in Ukraine, inflation, and stock market crashes. Policies and market sentiment have shown a technical downward trend, with bearish forces gradually strengthening.

Technical Analysis: 

From the current technical charts, the +1σ line, baseline, and -1σ line are all trending downward, with Bitcoin’s price running below the baseline. The bearish forces are stronger than the bullish ones. There is a risk of a downward breakout in the near term, and if Bitcoin falls below $30,000, it could continue declining to around $20,000, especially if the interest rate hike cycle is prolonged.

Potential Causes of Decline:

1. Federal Reserve Rate Hikes 
   From 2021 to 2022, governments implemented stimulus policies to rebuild weakened financial markets. However, in 2022, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to curb high inflation. This tightening of monetary policy has put pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
2. Bitcoin Investor Panic 
   For instance, the collapse of Luna and TerraUSD, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, in May of this year wiped out billions of dollars, triggering panic among investors, which in turn affected confidence in the Bitcoin market.
3. Institutional Pullback 
   Some major cryptocurrency supporters and institutions, such as Tesla, have significantly reduced their Bitcoin holdings. The withdrawal of these institutions has further pushed Bitcoin prices downward.