PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Time to evacuate is running out as Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida

TAMPA,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Fla. (AP) — Hurricane Milton churned Wednesday toward a potentially catastrophic collision along the west coast of Florida, where some residents insisted they would stay after millions were ordered to evacuate and officials warned that stragglers would face grim odds of surviving.

The Tampa Bay area, home to more than 3.3 million people, faced the possibility of widespread destruction after avoiding direct hits from major hurricanes for more than a century. The National Hurricane Center predicted Milton, a monstrous Category 5 hurricane during much of its approach, would likely weaken but remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall late Wednesday.

Milton was centered late Tuesday about 405 miles (650 kilometers) southwest of Tampa with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kmh), the National Hurricane Center reported.

Forecasters predicted the storm will retain hurricane strength as it crosses central Florida on Thursday on a path east toward the Atlantic Ocean. The hurricane’s precise track remained uncertain, as forecasters Tuesday evening nudged its projected path slightly south of Tampa.

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Thousands of fleeing cars clogged Florida’s highways ahead of the storm, but time for evacuations was running out Wednesday. Tampa Mayor Jane Castor noted that up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) of storm surge forecast for her city would be deep enough to swallow an entire house.

“So if you’re in it, basically that’s the coffin that you’re in,” Castor said.

Milton targets communities still reeling two weeks after Hurricane Helene flooded streets and homes in western Florida along its devasting march that left at least 230 dead across the South.

In the seaside town of Punta Gorda, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) south of Tampa, streets were still filled Tuesday with 5-foot (1.5-meter) piles of soggy furniture, clothing, books, appliances and other trash dragged from damaged homes.

Many homes sat vacant, but accountant and art collector Scott Joiner remained on the second floor of the New Orleans-style home he built 17 years ago. Joiner said bull sharks swam in the flooded streets and a neighbor had to be rescued by canoe when Helene passed and flooded the first floor of his home.

“Water is a blessing to have,” Joiner said, “but it is very deadly.”

Joiner said he planned to go another round and ride out Milton, despite the risk.

Authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders across 11 Florida counties with a combined population of about 5.9 million people, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

Officials have warned that anyone staying behind must fend for themselves, as first responders are not expected to risk their lives attempting rescues at the height of the storm.

In Riverview, south of Tampa, several drivers waiting in a long line for fuel Tuesday said they had no plans to evacuate.

“I think we’ll just hang, you know — tough it out,” said Martin Oakes, of nearby Apollo Beach. “We got shutters up. The house is all ready. So this is sort of the last piece of the puzzle.”

Others weren’t taking any chances after Helene.

On Anna Marie Island along the southern edge of Tampa Bay, Evan Purcell packed up his father’s ashes and was trying to catch his 9-year-old cat, McKenzie, as he prepared to leave Tuesday. Helene left him with thousands of dollars in damage when his home flooded. He feared Milton might take the rest.

“I’m still in shock over the first one and here comes round two,” Purcell said. “I just have a pit in my stomach about this one.”

State and local governments scrambled ahead of the storm to remove piles of debris left in Helene’s wake, fearing that the oncoming hurricane would turn loose wreckage into flying missiles. Gov. Ron DeSantis said the state deployed over 300 dump trucks that had removed 1,300 loads of debris.

In Mexico, authorities in the state of Yucatan reported minor damage from Milton as it passed just offshore. Power lines, light poles and trees were knocked down near the coast, and some small thatched-roof structures were destroyed, Yucatan Gov. Joaquín Díaz said. He did not report any deaths or injuries.

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Spencer reported from Fort Myers Beach. Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers Curt Anderson and Kate Payne in Tampa; Freida Frisaro in Fort Lauderdale; Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia; Seth Borenstein in Washington and Mark Stevenson in Mexico City.