Current:Home > InvestHere's where inflation stands today — and why it's raising hope about the economy -VisionFunds
Here's where inflation stands today — and why it's raising hope about the economy
Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center View
Date:2025-04-06 12:08:59
Inflation got a little higher last month — but not enough to set off alarms.
Consumer prices in July were up 3.2% from a year ago, according to data released Thursday, driven in part by rising rent, gas and grocery prices. The increase came after the annual inflation rate had fallen steadily for the previous 12 months.
Despite the rise in the headline rate, details in the report show inflation continuing to moderate. Stocks rallied on the news, which bolstered hopes for a "soft landing," in which the Federal Reserve brings inflation under control without tipping the economy into recession.
Here are four things to know about the latest report on inflation.
What was so encouraging about the latest inflation report?
Although consumer prices rose more in July on an annual basis than they did in June, that shouldn't be read as inflation gaining steam. Rather, it's the result of a single month of flat prices a year ago dropping out of the calculation.
Focusing on more recent months shows price hikes continuing to moderate. In fact, over the last three months, prices have climbed at an annual rate of just under 2%. And some prices are actually coming down.
So what is up — and what is down in price?
Goods overall are getting cheaper, with some exceptions like gasoline and groceries.
Used car prices were down last month, and they are expected to keep falling. Air fares dropped more than 8% in July for the second month in a row.
Rent is still going up, but not as fast as it had been. The economy is also seeing a moderation in the price of services – things like getting your car fixed or going to the dentist.
Service prices are largely driven by wages, so they tend to be stickier than other prices. The big question is whether service inflation will come down enough to bring overall inflation under control.
Why is Wall Street so encouraged about inflation?
The inflation data was within what Wall Street had forecast, and it reinforces hope that inflation is easing.
At the same time, other recent data is showing a sturdier economy than many had expected. The labor market, in particular, is holding up well despite the Fed's aggressive increases in interest rates since last year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points in the first hour of trading Thursday, although most of those gains were later reversed. The Dow closed up 52 points, or 0.15%.
Stephen Juneau, a senior economist at Bank of America, says he's encouraged about the trajectory of inflation.
"I think the direction of travel right now is really moving in the right direction, and is encouraging on the inflation front," Juneau said.
How could the inflation data impact the Fed's thinking?
Even before Thursday's inflation news, markets were betting the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting after raising rates aggressively since last year.
Oddsmakers see that as even more likely after this report.
But nothing's certain and additional economic data will determine the Fed's next action. The Fed doesn't meet until late September and there are still areas of concern, including higher oil prices which are driving up prices at the gas pump.
How could inflation impact households?
Although inflation is easing, it's still pretty high. Even if the Fed doesn't raise rates higher, they're likely to remain elevated for an extended period.
That has an impact on many people's pocketbooks since households are paying more for mortgages and credit cards, for example.
And the economy may be looking sturdier, but there's still a risk the U.S. could enter a recession.
China's economy, for example, is showing signs of slowing down significantly, which could impact the global economy at a time when the U.S. is taking a tougher stance against the Asian country.
veryGood! (32)
Related
- The Best Stocking Stuffers Under $25
- 90 Day Fiancé’s Ed and Liz Reveal the Lessons They've Learned After 11-Plus Break Ups
- Sunday Night Football Debuts Taylor Swift-Inspired Commercial for Chiefs and Jets NFL Game
- Season’s 1st snow expected in central Sierra Nevada, including Yosemite National Park
- Pregnant Kylie Kelce Shares Hilarious Question Her Daughter Asked Jason Kelce Amid Rising Fame
- Get to Know Travis Kelce and His Dating History Before He Met Taylor Swift
- Maui wildfire missed signals stoke outrage as officials point fingers
- Olivia Rodrigo, Usher, Nicki Minaj among stars tapped for Jingle Ball tour, ABC special
- Federal Spending Freeze Could Have Widespread Impact on Environment, Emergency Management
- What was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history?
Ranking
- Dick Vitale announces he is cancer free: 'Santa Claus came early'
- Dianne Feinstein remembered as a trailblazer and pioneer as tributes pour in after senator's death
- Ryder Cup getting chippy as Team USA tip their caps to Patrick Cantlay, taunting European fans
- Why arrest in Tupac Shakur's murder means so much to so many
- Romantasy reigns on spicy BookTok: Recommendations from the internet’s favorite genre
- Revisit Senator Dianne Feinstein's top accomplishments following the trailblazer's death
- Christopher Worrell, fugitive Proud Boys member and Jan. 6 rioter, captured by FBI
- Missing inmate who walked away from NJ halfway house recaptured, officials say
Recommendation
B.A. Parker is learning the banjo
Borrowers are reassessing their budgets as student loan payments resume after pandemic pause
Disney, DeSantis legal fights ratchet up as company demands documents from Florida governor
It's a trap! All of the goriest 'Saw' horror devices, ranked (including new 'Saw X' movie)
Paige Bueckers vs. Hannah Hidalgo highlights women's basketball games to watch
6 migrants rescued from back of a refrigerated truck in France
Wild 'N Out Star Jacky Oh's Cause of Death Revealed
Georgia judge declines to freeze law to discipline prosecutors, suggesting she will reject challenge