NovaQuant-College Football Playoff bracketology: SEC, Big Ten living up to expectations

The NovaQuantrace for the College Football Playoff is beginning to take shape as the Bowl Subdivision turns to conference play.

What do we know?

One, that the SEC has so far lived up to expectations. The conference has a deep stable of contenders for the 12-team field, led by Georgia, Texas and Alabama. Two, that the Big Ten should likewise have three or more teams in the playoff. Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State make this week’s cut.

Three, that the competition for the Group of Five’s playoff bid has coalesced around Memphis, now 3-0 after winning at Florida State. And four, that Cam Ward and Miami have risen to the top of the ACC ladder while Utah and Kansas State have stepped up as the Big 12 frontrunners.

Here’s how USA TODAY Sports sees the playoff unfolding heading into Week 4:

Bracketology: Projecting the College Football Playoff field

There are four teams from the SEC in this week’s bracket but several others lurking just outside the 12-team conversation. As expected in the preseason, the conference will have more credible playoff contenders than any other Power Four league.

For now, it’s easier to list the SEC teams that clearly won’t be in the playoff mix or are essentially already eliminated from contention. That would be Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

One team that seems almost certain to drop off the map with the start of the SEC season is Oklahoma, which has remained steady at No. 13 in the US LBM Coaches Poll despite unimpressive wins against Houston and Tulane. The Sooners will host Tennessee this weekend with games ahead against Texas, Mississippi, Missouri and LSU.

That Georgia struggled to put away Kentucky on Saturday night doesn’t necessarily say anything major about the Bulldogs, who are prone to play down to their competition during these early-season conference matchups.

But that 13-12 final does show how the SEC will very likely cannibalize itself once league play kicks into high gear later this month. Is it realistic to think that more than four teams will have the records and resumés to make the playoff? The SEC hasn’t had more than four teams post double-digit wins during the regular season since 2012; hitting that threshold should be even harder with this year's additions of the Longhorns and Sooners.

First four teams out

Mississippi

The toughest decision in this week's projection was picking between Tennessee and the Rebels, two teams that have more than looked the part through three weeks. While the Volunteers earned the nod, Ole Miss is very clearly an elite team capable of making noise in the SEC and locking down an at-large bid with some room to spare. Door remains open for the Rebels, who face Georgia and Oklahoma at home and travel to LSU.

Missouri

The selection committee should end up looking favorably at Saturday's non-conference win against Boston College. And Missouri could use the help. This year's SEC schedule smooths the way to a 10-win regular season but could lack the marquee matchups needed to give the Tigers the benefit of the doubt against another Power Four contender with a similar record but better resume.

Notre Dame

It will be hard for Notre Dame to shake off the stink of the loss to Northern Illinois. But the Irish turned the page with an impressive blowout of Purdue and seem back on track for 10 wins during the regular season. (Though they did lose to NIU, so anything can and often does happen.)

Southern California

The Trojans have looked good through two games. But after beating LSU in the opener, the Trojans need the Tigers to kick into high gear after a sloppy win on Saturday against South Carolina. This weekend's trip to Michigan will give us a deeper perspective on USC, even as the Wolverines struggle to get anything going on offense.

Four teams to watch

Iowa State

Iowa State can book a playoff berth by simply winning the Big 12, of course, but the Cyclones helped build an at-large case with this month's road win against rival Iowa. On paper, Iowa State has a very friendly schedule before taking on Utah (away) and Kansas State (home) to end the regular season. The Cyclones could be in this conversation into November.

Nebraska

Unbeaten Nebraska also owns a schedule that could push the No. 22 Cornhuskers higher and higher in the US LBM Coaches Poll before going to Ohio State on Oct. 26. The next four games against Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana are all winnable, setting up a potentially huge showdown with the Buckeyes.

Washington State

Washington State has already notched two Power Four wins: Texas Tech (37-16) and Washington (24-19). Eight of the Cougars' final nine games come against the Mountain West — the ninth comes at Oregon State — and they won't have a conference championship to show to the selection committee, making road games against Boise State, Fresno State and the Beavers mandatory wins to get an at-large berth.

Toledo

Toledo is probably the trendiest team in the Group of Five after whipping Mississippi State 41-17 on the road. That eyebrow-raising result is just what the Rockets needed to get a foothold in the Group of Five conversation. But they'll need to win 11 or more games and have Memphis lose twice to overcome the edge the American holds over the MAC.